How China and BRICS quietly became the world’s biggest economic powerhouse while America was busy arguing about tariffs
Remember when “Made in America” was a badge of honor? When the dollar was king and every country in the world came knocking on Washington’s door for economic advice?
Well, buckle up, because according to US economist Richard Wolff, that party’s over. And the hangover is going to be brutal.
The Story That Nobody Wants to Hear
Here’s what Wolff is saying that’s making everyone uncomfortable: “The American empire is over.” Not declining. Not struggling. Over.
Bold words from an economist who’s spent decades watching the numbers, right? But here’s the kicker – the data backs him up in ways that should make every American policymaker lose sleep.
Wolff highlights that if the same analysis is applied to China and the BRICS nations, their share is around 35%, making them a larger economic bloc than we are. Currently, the BRICS countries contribute 35% of the world’s GDP, whereas the G7 accounts for just 30%.
Let that sink in for a moment. The club that America leads (the G7) is now economically smaller than the club that China dominates (BRICS). It’s like being the captain of the B-team while your rival leads the A-team.
When Did Everything Go Wrong?
According to Wolff, “We peaked 12 to 15 years ago.” That puts America’s economic peak somewhere around 2009-2012. Coincidentally, right around the time of the financial crisis that America caused but China helped solve.
While America was busy bailing out banks and arguing about debt ceilings, China was quietly building the world’s most impressive economic growth story. For the last 30 years, China has grown its economy, its GDP, its gross domestic product, between 6% and 9% per year.
Think about that. For three decades, while America was averaging maybe 2-3% growth (when we were lucky), China was doubling that consistently. It’s like watching a marathon where your competitor has been running twice as fast as you for 30 years – eventually, they’re going to lap you.
The Great Economic Flip
Here’s where it gets really interesting. The combined GDP of the BRICS is now higher than that of the G7, being 10 billion U.S. dollars higher. But it’s not just about raw numbers – it’s about where the world is looking for leadership.
Every country in the world thinking about building a railroad or expanding its health program, they used to send their people to Washington or London to get help, Wolff explains. Not anymore. Now they’re heading to Beijing.
It’s like being the popular kid in high school who graduates and realizes that nobody calls anymore because there’s a cooler crowd in college.
The Tariff Tantrum: When Protection Becomes Admission of Defeat
Here’s where Wolff’s analysis gets brutally honest about American trade policy. When the US slaps tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles like those from BYD, what’s really happening?
It’s not strength – it’s admission of weakness. These tariffs exist because Chinese EVs are simply better and cheaper than American ones. While tariffs block superior Chinese electric vehicles like BYD’s, they only protect US companies like Tesla and GM.
Think about it: if American cars were genuinely competitive, would we need to artificially make Chinese cars more expensive? It’s like putting a blindfold on your opponent because you can’t win a fair fight.
Meanwhile, jobs aren’t coming back, they’re being created abroad. All those promises about manufacturing returning to America? The global economy has moved on, and the jobs are following the growth – which is happening in BRICS countries, not Ohio or Michigan.
The Numbers Game: Size Matters
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – population and economic potential. BRICS nations have expanded and are now 50% of the world’s population, compared to US’s 4.2% and G7’s 10%.
This isn’t just about today’s numbers; it’s about tomorrow’s possibilities. When you have half the world’s people in your economic bloc, and they’re getting richer and more educated, the mathematical outcome is pretty obvious.
The BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa) have a combined population of 3.2 billion, soon to grow even larger, making their population roughly four times that of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the US)
It’s basic economics: more people with growing incomes equals bigger markets, more innovation, and eventually, more economic power.
The Denial Phase: America’s Expensive Therapy Session
Here’s what makes Wolff’s analysis particularly stinging: “We’re number two. And that changes everything.” But instead of adapting to this new reality, American leaders are stuck in what psychologists would call the denial phase.
The result? Policies that are more about preserving feelings than addressing facts. Trade wars that hurt American consumers. Tariffs that protect uncompetitive industries. Military spending that’s designed more for ego than efficiency.
“The road we are on [as] a declining empire, becoming more and more unequal… you don’t need rocket science to understand that’s not sustainable. That situation is going to blow up, and it’s not going to be pretty,” Wolff warns.
The BRICS Boom: It’s Not Just China Anymore
Here’s what makes this shift particularly dangerous for American economic dominance – it’s not just about China anymore. BRICS countries account for about 50% of global CO2 emissions, while the G7 nations contribute roughly 21%.
That environmental statistic tells you everything about where the real economic activity is happening. Carbon emissions track economic output. More emissions from BRICS means more factories, more energy use, more economic activity.
And it’s accelerating. It is predicted that China’s GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century.
So we’re not just talking about China passing America – we’re talking about India eventually doing it too. That’s not decline; that’s a fundamental reshuffling of global economic power.
What This Actually Means for Regular Americans
Okay, so America’s no longer the undisputed economic champion. What does that mean for you and me?
First, it means the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency is under threat. When countries start trading in yuan instead of dollars, it reduces demand for American currency. Less demand means a weaker dollar, which means imported goods (basically everything) becomes more expensive.
Second, it means American companies lose their privileged position in global markets. When the world’s biggest consumer market is in Asia, not America, guess where companies are going to focus their innovation and investment?
Third, it means the era of America dictating global economic rules is ending. Instead of one superpower setting the terms, we’re moving toward a multipolar world where multiple powers share influence.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Competition
Here’s the part that really stings: this isn’t happening because America became worse – it’s happening because other countries became better.
China didn’t beat America by cheating or stealing (though there’s some of that). They beat America by investing in education, infrastructure, and technology while America was spending trillions on wars in the Middle East.
BRICS didn’t overtake the G7 through some conspiracy. They did it by focusing on economic development while the G7 was focused on… well, what exactly has the G7 been focused on lately?
The Way Forward: Acceptance vs. Denial
Wolff’s message isn’t that America is doomed – it’s that America needs to wake up to the new reality and adapt accordingly. “We’re number two. And that changes everything.”
Being number two doesn’t mean being irrelevant. Japan has been the world’s third-largest economy for decades and does just fine. Germany is fourth and arguably has a higher quality of life than America.
But it does mean that the strategies that worked when you were number one don’t work when you’re number two. You can’t dictate terms anymore – you have to negotiate them.
The Global Implications
This shift isn’t just about America and China – it’s about the entire structure of the global economy. When the BRICS countries account for 35% of global GDP, and that percentage is growing, it means:
- International institutions like the World Bank and IMF become less relevant
- Global trade flows shift toward Asia and away from the Atlantic
- Innovation centers emerge in multiple countries instead of just Silicon Valley
- Currency competition intensifies as alternatives to the dollar gain credibility
The Bottom Line
Richard Wolff’s analysis is uncomfortable because it’s probably correct. The numbers don’t lie, even when the politicians do.
America’s economic empire isn’t ending because of some grand conspiracy or sudden collapse. It’s ending because that’s what happens to all empires eventually – they get surpassed by younger, hungrier competitors who want it more.
The combined GDP of the BRICS countries increased over the past decade, now comprising a higher share than the G7. This trend isn’t slowing down; it’s accelerating.
The question isn’t whether American economic dominance is ending – the data suggests it already has. The question is whether American leaders will acknowledge this reality and adapt accordingly, or continue living in denial until the gap becomes so wide that adaptation becomes impossible.
“We peaked 12 to 15 years ago,” Wolff says. If he’s right, then the last decade and a half of American economic policy has been about managing decline rather than driving growth.
And here’s the really uncomfortable part: maybe that’s okay. Maybe the world is big enough for multiple economic powers. Maybe competition will make everyone better.
But first, America has to admit that the competition exists. And based on current political rhetoric about bringing back manufacturing and making America great again, that admission is still a long way off.
The empire may be over, but the country isn’t. The question is whether American leaders are ready to run a country instead of an empire. Because those require very different skill sets.
Until then, the world is moving on – with or without American leadership. And the BRICS countries are happy to fill the void.
